Predictions 101 — Week 8

0 Comments

Back to our winning ways, we went 7-5 in Week 7 vs. “the number.”

For the second week in a row, the only blemishes on our 10-2 straight-up mark were a couple of foolish reaches for upsets (Wake Forest over Virginia Tech, and Cal over USC).

If there’s gonna be an upset this week, it’ll be a doozy. The board is littered with ranked teams involved in contests with double-digit pointspreads, in some cases even against another ranked team. Our top game is one such matchup, but that “Clash of Champions” deserves attention … at least at the start.

After 84 games, we’re 54-26-2 (two games weren’t on the board) and 65-19.

TOP 10 GAMES (Thurs., Oct. 20 thru Sat., Oct. 22)

1) No. 19 Auburn at No. 1 LSU
Sat., Oct. 22 — 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

With all of LSU’s success it seems rather odd that the Tigers haven’t opened a season with eight consecutive victories since 1973.

Auburn (5-2, 3-1 in SEC), fresh off a win over Florida, intends on keeping it that way. The defending national champs did capture last year’s meeting, but that was at home on the Plains and Cam Newton, not Clint Moseley, was taking the snaps.

Moseley, a sophomore with only nine attempts under his belt, will be the third consecutive first-time starter that LSU (7-0, 4-0) will be facing. Florida’s Jacoby Brissett and Tennessee’s Matt Simms were treated rather rudely in a pair of losses (41-11 and 38-7, respectively) during the past two weeks.

LSU’s wicked defense will focus on Auburn running back Michael Dyer and dare Moseley to try is luck. That won’t turn out well, but Gene Chizik’s biggest problem is his inadequate defense matching up against LSU’s two-quarterback attack, hellbent on making up for last season’s rocky showing at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Opening point spread: LSU by 21

The pick: LSU 39-13

Final: LSU 45-10

2) No. 4 Wisconsin at No. 15 Michigan State
Sat., Oct. 22 — 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

This prediction comes courtesy of “Coach Hedanz” from the P101 satellite office in Maunawili, Hawai‘i.

Little brother demoralized big brother again, knocking Michigan from the unbeatens last week. Well-balanced Sparty is turning heads, and no offense meant towards any previous Michigan State opponent or even “Honey Badger” Tyrann Mathieu, but this Badger team is a whole different animal.

With the No. 1 scoring offense, a top-10 defense and this year’s answer to Cam Newton, look out no matter who you are. Nebraska will testify to the dominance of Wisconsin (6-0, 2-0 in Big Ten). The only chink in the Badger armor is that they are not yet road tested.

Michigan State (5-1, 2-0) owns the nation’s top-rated pass defense and is second in total defense. Last week, the Spartans held down the Michigan offense, keeping Shoelace Robinson in check. Balanced and talented, MSU is fully capable of protecting its house.

The problem, Wisconsin is balanced and more talented.

Michigan State will hold its own against the powerful Badgers for a while, but just like against Notre Dame, the Spartans will struggle to get points on the board and simply give too many opportunities to the Wisconsin offensive juggernaut led by Russell Wilson and Montee Ball.

Opening point spread: Wisconsin by 6 1/2

The pick: Wisconsin 45-17

Final: Michigan State 37-31

3) No. 22 Washington at No. 7 Stanford
Sat., Oct. 22 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

Fed a steady diet of Pac-12 bottom feeders, the Cardinal are finally gonna be tested. Or will they?

Washington (5-1, 3-0 in Pac-12) travels to The Farm determined to make themselves famous at the expense of Stanford (6-0, 4-0), which has faced Arizona, UCLA, Colorado and Washington State, after opening with non-conference wins over San Jose State and Duke. One might consider this to be Stanford’s season opener.

Everyone knows what Andrew Luck is all about, so attention ought to shift over to Husky quarterback Keith Price, who has posted some Luck-esque numbers so far this season … 69 percent completion rate, 1,466 yards passing, 21 touchdown tosses and only four interceptions. (Luck’s line is 69%, 1,719, 18 and 3, and he hasn’t been sacked in the last four games.)

If running back Chris Polk can find a way to balance out the Washington attack, the Huskies will make the Cardinal work a full 60 minutes for this one.

Opening point spread: Final: Stanford by 19 1/2

The pick: Stanford 35-27

Final: Stanford 65-21

4) Tennessee at No. 2 Alabama
Sat., Oct. 22 — 7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN2

The “Third Saturday in October” will be the “Second Blowout in Two Weeks.”

That’s not a dig at Tennessee (3-3, 0-3 in SEC). That’s just how it goes when you play the top two teams in the country back-to-back. Ahhh … life in the SEC.

Alabama (7-0, 4-0) has a defense that the Carolina Panthers could use. The stats are downright silly. Seven points and 184 yards (38 rushing) allowed per game? C’mon …

Last week, the Crimson Tide allowed Mississippi to gain 72 yards on its first possession and then closed all roads for the Rebels, limiting them to just 69 yards for the remainder of the 52-7 cakewalk.

And then, you’ve got the Bama offense, led by tailback Trent Richardson, who will go over the 1,000-yard mark in the first quarter.

Opening point spread: Alabama by 27 1/2

The pick: Alabama 35-3

Final: Alabama 37-6

5) USC at Notre Dame
Sat., Oct. 22 — 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC

In the lengthy history of college football’s greatest intersectional rivalry, this is only the 10th time that both teams come into the annual throwdown unranked.

If Lane Kiffin is wondering why he’s the first USC coach to be 5-1 yet unranked, somebody needs to tell him that he lost his only game of significance so far this season, a 43-22 meltdown at Arizona State.

Notre Dame (4-2) was inexplicably victorious at the Coliseum last year, snapping an eight-game losing streak to the Trojans, as Irish backup quarterback Tommy Rees beat USC fill-in Mitch Mustain.

This year Rees and the rest of the Notre Dame squad is far more settled within the Brian Kelly regime.

Weak in the coaching department and continually bizarre on special teams, USC (5-1, 3-1 in Pac-12) is in prime position to get schooled by Kelly & Co.

Opening point spread: Notre Dame by 9

The pick: Notre Dame 34-23

Final: USC 31-17

6) North Carolina at No. 8 Clemson
Sat., Oct. 22 — noon ET, ESPN

This is a dangerous game for the Tigers. After rallying from a 35-17 deficit to post an emotional 56-45 victory at Maryland last Saturday, Clemson (7-0, 4-0 in ACC) is riding high and there’s talk of a table being run.

With all of that swirling around Death Valley, there could easily be a tendency to look past North Carolina (5-2, 1-2) and ahead to the crucial showdown with Georgia Tech that looms next week in Atlanta.

We envision Dabo Swinney having to do some extra chest-bumping in the second half to get his Tigers roaring.

Opening point spread: Clemson by 9 1/2

The pick: Clemson 31-24

Final: Clemson 59-38

7) Texas Tech at No. 3 Oklahoma
Sat., Oct. 22 — 8 p.m. ET, ABC

The Red Raiders average 44 points and 372 passing yards per game, but unfortunately they also have yielded a total of 86 points in the last two outings, losses at home to No. 17 Texas A&M and No. 11 Kansas State.

As Texas Tech (4-2, 1-2 in Big 12) visits Norman for the second consecutive season, one of the few — very few — things that Tommy Tuberville has going for him is the fact that the Sooners have those same ranked teams next up. Perhaps they’ll be looking ahead to that crucial section of the schedule.

Oklahoma (6-0, 3-0) has 24 sacks so far this season, including 13 in the last two games. That’s got to have Red Raider quarterback Seth Doege and his offensive line on edge.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma by 28

The pick: Oklahoma 42-20

Final: Texas Tech 41-38

8 ) No. 11 West Virginia at Syracuse
Fri., Oct. 21 — 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Orange won’t be able to sneak up on the Mountaineers like they did last year in Morgantown. Besides the fact that it already happened, both teams had last weekend off to prepare for this one and the primetime spotlight has a way of adding intense focus.

Syracuse (4-2, 0-1 in Big East) is expected to welcome back defensive end Chandler Jones and strong safety Olando Fisher, who both missed the past five games due to injuries sustained in the opener. It’s doubtful that the reinforcements will be enough to plug the holes in a unit that ranks 112th in pass defense.

West Virginia (5-1, 1-0), which has scored 98 points in its last two games, will gladly take full advantage. Mountaineer quarterback Geno Smith has been on a rampage as of late, passing for 1,539 yards in his last four games.

Opening point spread: West Virginia by 14

The pick: West Virginia 39-20

Final: Syracuse 49-23

9) Fresno State at Nevada
Sat., Oct. 22 — 4:05 p.m. ET, WAC Sports Network

We’re not sure this amounts to even half a hill of beans, but we see this game as the Western Athletic Conference championship. Both the Bulldogs and Wolf Pack have to face Hawaii down the stretch, but the Warriors don’t seem to have their usual fight this season. (Maybe none of these teams want to take the WAC title belt over to the MWC).

Nevada (3-3, 1-0 in WAC) has been busy pistol whipping UNLV and New Mexico at home by a combined score of 86-7 in the past two weeks, after opening the season with four consecutive road games.

The Wolf Pack, who won a 35-34 thriller last season, are averaging 249 yards per game on the ground. That’ll be a tough matchup for Fresno State (3-4, 2-0), which owns the 89th rushing defense in the nation.

These two teams are liable to play hot-potato with the football. The Bulldogs rank 104th in turnover margin and the Wolf Pack are even worse at 117th.

Opening point spread: Nevada by 8 1/2

The pick: Nevada 38-21

Final: Nevada 45-38

10) No. 6 Oklahoma State at Missouri
Sat., Oct. 22 — noon ET, FX

After back-to-back road victories over Texas and a lofty position in the initial BCS rankings, it’s perfectly natural for us to assume that the Cowboys are pleased with themselves and might not be completely focused on an opponent they’ve played (and beaten) only twice since 2005.

This matchup also represents the fourth time in the last five games that Oklahoma State (6-0, 3-0 in Big 12) is playing on the road. That has to catch up with the ‘Boys at some point.

Missouri (3-3, 1-2) tuned up for this one with a 52-17 victory over Iowa State last week. The five-TD margin of victory was the Tigers’ biggest since 2008.

We’re not suggesting that the Cowboys, who have won their last eight games on the road, will drop this one, but it won’t be business as usual.

Opening point spread: Oklahoma State by 6 1/2

The pick: Oklahoma State 28-26

Final: Oklahoma State 45-24

TWO MORE YOU SHOULDN’T IGNORE

UCLA at Arizona
Thurs., Oct. 20 — 9 p.m. ET, ESPN

This prediction comes courtesy of Marc Doche (@MDoche) from the P101 satellite office in Burbank, Calif. Hopefully he knows as much about bad coaching in college football as he does good coaching in AYSO and thoroughbred horse racing.

An otherwise snoozer gains intrigue due to the revolving head coaching door at the midway point of the season. After Arizona (1-5, 0-4 in Pac-12) fired Mike Stoops last week and ex-UCLA head honcho Bob Toledo resigned at Tulane this week, some among the Bruin faithful are hopeful the saying “never two without three” holds true and head coach Rick Neuheisel (18-25 since taking over for Karl Dorrell) is shown the door much sooner than later.

It could happen after an embarrassing performance under the national TV spotlight against a Wildcat squad that has lost five in a row and eight straight in league play. Fittingly, Arizona’s last conference win came at the expense of UCLA (3-3, 2-1), who the Wildcats have defeated four straight times. That gives interim head coach Tim Kish a golden opportunity to post a win in his debut after 36 years as an assistant.

The Bruins have alternated wins and losses in their first six games and are coming off a less-than-inspiring 28-25 victory over Washington State at the Rose Bowl on Oct. 8. Now, it’s time to lose.

Opening point spread: Arizona by 3 1/2

The pick: Arizona 31-16

Final: Arizona 48-12

No. 12 Kansas State at Kansas
Sat., Oct. 22 — noon ET, FSN

There’s been more Sunflower Showdowns (109) than World Series (107), so that’s one reason to take notice when these in-state rivals butt heads.

Kansas State (6-0, 3-0 in Big 12) has scored on 19 of its last 21 trips into the red zone. That trend should continue smoothly against Kansas (2-4, 0-3), which is yielding more than 26 first downs per game and allowing opponents to convert on third down at an alarming rate of 52.5 percent (both stats represent rock-bottom in the Big 12).

The Jayhawks’ most dangerous threat is D.J. Beshears’ kickoff returns. He got a workout in last week’s not-so-embarrassing 47-17 loss to Oklahoma and responded with 155 return yards.

Opening point spread: Kansas State by 11 1/2

The pick: Kansas State 38-20

Final: Kansas State 59-21

Week 8 record: 8-4
Total: 73-23

Signing day ends recruiting sagas for QB Rashada, CB McClain

college signing day
Chris Leduc/Getty Images
2 Comments

The opening of college football’s traditional signing period for high school prospects brought an apparent end to two of the cycle’s most notable recruitments.

Blue-chip quarterback Jaden Rashada, who signed with Florida in December and then asked to be released from the commitment when a name, imagine and likeness deal fell through, announced Wednesday he is going to Arizona State.

“Glad to truly be home!” Rashada posted on Twitter.

Also in the Pac-12, Cormani McClain, previously committed to Miami, signed with Colorado to make it two straight years that coach Deion Sanders has landed a five-star cornerback.

Rashada’s recruitment made national headlines and became something of a cautionary tale for the college football’s NIL era.

The four-star recruit from California was the focal point of a recruiting fight between Miami and Florida. That led to a bidding war between booster-run collectives that try to secure sponsorship deals for athletes from those schools.

Rashada had originally given a verbal commitment to Miami, but flipped to Florida and signed with the Gators during the early signing period after being offered an NIL deal that could have been worth more than $13 million.

When it became clear that Gator Collective, which is not part of the University of Florida or its athletic department, did not have the money to fund the deal, Rashada asked to be released from his national letter of intent. Florida granted the request.

Gators coach Billy Napier told reporters he could not provide details on what happened with Rashada, but did say he did not anticipated hearing from the NCAA about possible violations of recruiting rules.

“I think the reality is the current structure of NIL with third parties being involved, with agents being involved, with marketing representatives, with lawyers, with collectives, very fluid and I think a very unique dynamic,” Napier said. “I think ultimately NIL is a strength for the Gators.”

Rashada becomes the highest-profile high school recruit in new Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham‘s first signing class. The 32-year-old Phoenix native and Arizona State graduate was hired in December.

Rashada’s father, Harlen, was part of Arizona State’s football team in the 1990s. Jaden Rashada called ASU his “childhood dream school.”

“Can’t wait to carry on the family name at the University and start my journey. Forks up!” Rashada posted.

McClain’s recruitment was more traditional in its twists and turns. One of the highest-rated players in the country, he was pursued by most of college football’s most successful programs, including Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State.

The Lakeland, Florida, product committed to Miami last fall, but even then it seemed he might be lured away from the Hurricanes by the Crimson Tide.

Then Coach Prime took over in Boulder, Colorado, and changed the game.

Last year, Sanders made recruiting history when he swayed five-star cornerback Travis Hunter to renege on a verbal commitment to Florida State and sign with Jackson State.

Never before had a player rated that highly signed at a school that plays in Division I football’s second tier, the Championship Subdivision.

Colorado hired Sanders to turn around a program that has been stuck near the bottom of the Pac-12 for most of the last decade. McClain visited Boulder last month and soon after committed to become the first five-star to sign with the Buffaloes in more than a decade.

He made it official early on signing day. McClain will join Hunter, who transferred to Colorado, in the Buffs’ secondary.

“First time CU signed two five-star players in the same class,” Sanders said. “Same position, by the way, and both of them are dogs. I can’t wait to see them play together.”

SOUTH CAROLINA SPEEDSTER

Nyckoles Harbor from Washington was one of the few five stars, as rated by 247 Sports’ composite rankings, who entered signing day uncommitted with real mystery surrounding where he would end up.

The decision came down to Oregon and South Carolina and the Gamecocks were the choice for the 6-foot-5, 225-pound edge rusher who might wind up playing receiver in college.

Harbor runs track, has posted elite times in the 100 and 200 and has Olympic aspirations.

STILL DUCK SEASON

Oregon drew a lot of attention during the early signing period, winning a handful of high-profile recruiting battles to be in position to have the Pac-12’s highest rated class.

The Ducks missed out on Harbor but had one more big score, landing four-star cornerback Rodrick Pleasant. The California player picked Oregon over Pac-12 rival – at least for another year – Southern California.

“Ultimately, we want to sign the best players everywhere but if you can win in your footprint, and our footprint, certainly California is part of that, we want to have success there and think this year we proved that we’re able to do that,” Lanning told reporters.

USC, which moves to the Big Ten after the 2023-24 school year, did get a signing day win with four-star tight end Walker Lyons.

FINAL SCORE

Alabama had already locked up the No. 1 recruiting class in the country for the 10th time in 13 years before the February signing period.

The Tide landed nine five stars. There were only 39 players given a five-star rating in the class, according to 247’s composite.

Two-time defending national champion Georgia was second, followed by Texas, Oklahoma and Ohio State. The rest of the top 10 were LSU, Miami, Oregon, Tennessee and Notre Dame.

While there has been much angst over the impact of NIL money being used as a recruiting inducement, the early results suggests it isn’t changing which schools are coming away with the highest-rated classes.

Using a five-year average of recruiting rankings from the 247 composite, here are the top 20 schools from 2017-21.

1. Alabama, 2 (average ranking)

2. Georgia, 2.2

3. Ohio State, 5

4. LSU, 6.8

5. Clemson, 8.2

6. Oklahoma 9.2

7. Texas A&M, 9.6

8. Texas, 10.8

9. Florida, 11.0

10. Oregon, 11.4.

11. Auburn, 11.6

12. Michigan, 11.6

13. Notre Dame, 12.4

14. Penn State, 13.8

15. Miami, 15.0

16. Florida State, 16.0

17. Tennessee, 16.8

18. USC, 19.6

19. Washington, 20.0

20. Nebraska 20.6.

Over the past two years (2022 and ’23), 17 of the top 20 teams remain in the top 20. USC was knocked out by an unusually low 70th place in 2022.

1. Alabama, 1.5

2. Georgia, 2.5

3. Texas, 4

4. Ohio State, 4.5

5. Oklahoma, 6

6. Texas A&M, 8

7. Notre Dame, 8.5

8. LSU, 9

9. Penn State, 9.5

10. Clemson, 10.5

11. Oregon, 10.5

12. Miami, 11.5

13. Tennessee, 13

14. Michigan, 13.5

15. Florida, 16

16. Auburn, 19

17. North Carolina, 19

18. Florida State, 20

19. South Carolina, 20

20. Kentucky. 22.5

Coach Prime comes up big in 1st recruiting class at Colorado

colorado football recruiting
Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA TODAY Sports
1 Comment

BOULDER, Colo. — Deion “Coach Prime” Sanders proudly recited the numbers from his first recruiting class at Colorado.

Two five-star recruits. A No. 21 overall class ranking, which was the highest in 15 years, he pointed out. A top-five class from the transfer portal, according to 247 Sports.

Then, a quick reminder – he’s not done gathering talent. Not by a long shot. This is just a brief pause, he teased, with possibility of more skilled players arriving sometime after the spring.

It’s taken Sanders less than two months in Boulder not only to revamp a downtrodden program but to give a starved fan base something else – hope.

“We’re not recruiting just no ordinary Tom, Dick and Harry,” Sanders said Wednesday on signing day. “We recruited some guys that can light up the scoreboard and prevent touchdowns from occurring. We’re coming. We’re serious about that.

“Hope is in the house. Hope is in the air. Hope is in the city. Hope is in the community.”

Sanders and his veteran staff have been busy scouring the nation for talent. The Hall of Fame NFL player known then as “Prime Time” has also posted on social media for recruits to reach out to him as well: “I ain’t hard to find.”

The Buffaloes signed players from 16 states and two from England. Not only that, they brought in a pair of five-star recruits in high school cornerback Cormani McClain and transfer cornerback/receiver Travis Hunter, who followed Sanders from Jackson State.

In all, there are around 35 newcomers on the spring roster. Maybe that’s why Sanders didn’t really want to talk about each of them by name.

“We’ve got names on the back of their shirts right now,” cracked Sanders, who starts spring practice March 19 with the intrasquad game scheduled for April 22. “I’m not familiar with every kid. I’m not being disrespectful. I’m just being honest.”

Only natural, given that he’s completely overhauled the roster from a team that went 1-11 last season. The class has four players from Georgia and seven from Sanders’ home state of Florida. There are eight defensive backs, which will come in handy given the level of quarterback play in the Pac-12.

In addition, Sanders brought in eight wide receivers, including Adam Hopkins, a four-star from Georgia. There’s also running back Dylan Edwards, who switched after verbally committing to Notre Dame.

Of course, don’t forget that transfer quarterback named Shedeur Sanders, who just happens to be the son of “Coach Prime” and threw 70 TD passes in two seasons at Jackson State.

Deion Sanders said he’s only getting warmed up, too.

“This is just a comma, because there’s a lot of people that’s going to bungee jump into the portal after spring because they’re going to be disappointed in playing time, commitment or the level of participation they’re garnishing,” Sanders said. “We’re going to take full advantage of that. So we’re not done. This is just the comma for the spring. But I love where we are, and what we have.”

It hasn’t taken long for Sanders to settle into the city of Boulder, calling it a “hidden gem.” He can’t wait to move into a house and have “a dog run around the yard.” He even doesn’t mind the snow, which blanketed Folsom Field on Wednesday. Quite honestly, he’s not sure why any player would want to go anywhere else.

“We expect to go get that kid,” Sanders said. “Only thing that can keep that kid from coming and signing with us, is a bag – someone paying them, the collectives or whatever. That’s it. Just outkicking the coverage. That’s it.

“Because the coaching staff, the atmosphere, the city, the publicity, the structure, the discipline, the academics, the graduation rate, the food in the cafeteria – I can keep going, because this thing is getting good. Just everything. It’s hard to say no. It really is.”

Listening in was athletic director Rick George, who appreciated the tone of what he heard. Sanders has quickly built the framework for a speedy turnaround.

“He’s brought a lot of energy and passion to this program again,” George said. “It’s what we desperately needed.”